The internet is filling up with posts about the hectic week of the Georgian air traffic controller. Last week marked four years since Western airlines started avoiding Russian airspace in response to the country’s invasion of Ukraine.
But now they are also avoiding a wide swath of the Middle East, fearing false identification by air-defense missiles that already claimed three American fighter planes. So the narrow corridor across the Caucasus has become the only route linking Europe and Asia, without an aerial detour to the south. Now Iran is even trying to shut this route down through drone strikes in Azerbaijan.
The coming great reshuffle
The busy Georgian air traffic controller may foreshadow a complete and permanent overhaul of the global airline industry. The Trump administration guesstimates the conflict in the Middle East to last at least another four to five weeks. But when the guns fall silent, Iran may end up with a new, even more hostile government, threatening neighbors with new prospects of military attacks.
With missiles threatening their hub airports, Etihad, Emirates, and Qatar see their “superconnector” strategy, of linking continents through a quick layover in a safe destination, in jeopardy.
But more than operational disruptions, the heightened long-term risk of political and military conflict in their home region threatens the trusted brands of safety and reliability they developed over decades. In recent years, they marketed their safety-first brand value, with Etihad pioneering the use of AI in safety management systems, Emirates receiving a perfect score in IATA’s Operational Safety Audit, and Qatar launching public-facing Safety First awareness events.
The brand image is reinforced by Airline Ratings’ designation of Etihad as the World’s Safest Airline in 2026, with Qatar and Emirates at 4th and 5th, respectively. It is difficult to see how this brand value can be maintained in a regional war.
Their European rivals are not in a better place. Higher costs and flight times from avoiding Russian airspace have already forced them to cut multiple routes to and from China. As early as 2023, their retreat from the Eurasian routes continued, despite a 49.5% increase in foreign visitors to China in 2025 stemming from Beijing’s expansion of visa-free travel to 50 countries, the majority of which are in Europe. New uncertainties in the Middle East could accelerate their pivot away from the Asian market.
Etihad, Emirates, and Qatar see their “superconnector” strategy, of linking continents through a quick layover in a safe destination, in jeopardy.
In their place, we could see the rise of a new generation of Eurasian superconnectors that leverage hubs beyond the Persian Gulf. The diminished presence of European airlines in response to the war in Ukraine had been accompanied by a corresponding increase in flights by Asian firms with no qualms or need to fly over Russia. Turkish, Thai, and Chinese flag carriers particularly benefited then, and are thus in a position to challenge their counterparts.
The Chinese edge
The Chinese state-owned airlines are positioning themselves to expand their market presence. Forced to cancel Middle Eastern routes, they offered fee-free refunds and rescheduling to all affected passengers. In the process, they branded themselves as responsible players determined to cut through the uncertainties of “extraordinary circumstances” like war that lie outside the liabilities of airlines and travel insurance.
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Cursory flight searches also show how Chinese carriers are using pricing power to secure market share. On multiple routes between major East Asian and European destinations, Chinese airlines are by far the cheapest options outside the offerings of the Gulf superconnectors. The budget-conscious may now find themselves walking through the corridors of airports in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou on their intercontinental journeys. In some ways, the shift is already happening.
On March 6, Australian travel company Flight Centre Travel Group reported that the number of corporate passengers transiting in Beijing and Shanghai on their way from Australia to Europe doubled in the last four days, much more than at Southeast Asian airports.
The rise of Chinese and other Asian superconnectors will nonetheless lead to a more fragmented global aviation market. Middle Eastern hubs link not just Europe with Asia, but also serve as outlets for Africa and expatriates living and working in the Gulf region itself. Those with no ties to Asia would not pivot all the way east before heading to their final destinations.
As more Africans fly beyond the continent and Gulf expats seek out more alternatives, African superconnectors like Ethiopian and carriers from alternative wealth havens like Singapore will also grow.
Moreover, while some Asia-based airlines seize market share through aggressive pricing and operational flexibility amidst turmoil in the Middle East, there is not yet any indication that they are systematically building the same long-term brand value of safety and reliability as Etihad, Qatar, and Emirates have done before. The lack of a concerted branding strategy may prevent them from commanding the loyalty and repeated usage among customers worldwide that the Gulf carriers had.
The lack of a concerted branding strategy may prevent them from commanding the loyalty and repeated usage among customers worldwide that the Gulf carriers had.
The transactional bargain hunters who newly patronize Asian hubs may disappear when the dust finally settles in Ukraine or Iran. However, one thing is clear. Persistent political instability radiating outward from Iran will create new global flight patterns and keep air controllers in Georgia and everywhere else busier than ever before. Airlines across Asia, the primary node of global aviation market growth, will capture an ever-larger portion of this shift away from the Middle East.
With financial capacity for discounts and freedom to operate across a larger geographic area, watch out for Chinese carriers to fill their seats with more non-Chinese transit passengers in the years ahead. But is the rise of Asian superconnectors a temporary wartime phenomenon? That will depend on whether these new darlings of the aviation industry can create the same trusted brands of safety and reliability that propelled their Gulf counterparts to global prominence.
Xiaochen is a business risk and education consultant specializing in Asia.
