Driven by 7.8% Growth Global Ad Revenue Forecast to Reach Nearly $1 Trillion in 2024

The industry is expected to surpass one trillion in revenue in 2025, one year earlier than GroupM’s forecast in December of 2023.

Driven by 7.8% Growth Global Ad Revenue Forecast to Reach Nearly $1 Trillion in 2024

The industry is expected to surpass one trillion in revenue in 2025, one year earlier than GroupM’s forecast in December of 2023.

GroupM has released a new forecast predicting a greater rise in global advertising spending with revenue predicted to grow 7.8% in 2024 to $989.8 billion.

This upward trend is projected to continue in 2025, with an additional 6.8% increase. The new figures are a revision of GroupM’s December projections, which anticipated a more modest 5.3% growth for 2024.

With the current momentum, the ad industry will surpass the trillion-dollar milestone in 2025 – one year earlier than GroupM previously forecast.


 

Ad Growth by Country for 2024

  • China: 14.0%
  • Brazil: 11.3%
  • India: 9.5%
  • France: 8.6%
  • U.S.: 5.8%
  • Canada: 5.7%
  • U.K.: 4.9%
  • Japan: 4.5%
  • Germany: 4.1%
  • Australia: 1.1%

Growth driven by China Comeback

The upgraded growth forecast is in part being driven by the comeback of China which is predicted to see 14% growth in 2024, followed by Brazil (11.3%), India (9.5%), France (8.6%), and the U.S. (5.8%).

“The increases in the total revenue for these years are largely due to revised forecasts for China, which we now estimate will record $199.4 billion in 2024 versus the $148.2 we wrote in our last forecast,” said GroupM

The U.S. and China are also home to 22 of the top 25 global media sellers which accounts for more than 40% of global GDP.

“These gains are primarily within digital pure-play and out-of-home advertising. We have also revised estimates for the U.S., which we now expect to reach $365.9 billion in ad revenue, up 5.8 percent over 2023’s $345.9 billion, excluding the impact of political advertising in both years.”


 

GroupM added that the U.S. and China make up 57.1% of global ad revenue, and adding $44.5 billion to their totals in 2024 (excluding U.S. political spending) amounts to nearly 1.5 times the cumulative $27.4 billion in incremental revenue for all other markets combined.

The U.S. and China are also home to 22 of the top 25 global media sellers which accounts for more than 40% of global GDP.

Media Channel Growth Forecast

  • Digital: +10.0%
  • Search: +5.3%
  • Retail Media: +17.5%
  • Audio: +0.8%
  • Television: +2.7%
  • OOH (Out-of-Home): +11.5%
  • Print: -3.0%
  • Cinema: +7.1%

The of AI Effect

GroupM estimates that 69.5% of ad revenue will be informed by AI in 2024 with the percentage reaching 94.1% by 2029, three years earlier than previously forecast.

“It is important for advertisers to be experimenting, learning and developing talent in this space now, not in a year’s time,” the report said,


Featured image Luzhou, China  by Jonas Lee

 

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