Brand lift measurement company On Device has found that Ad Recall, one of the most widely used brand lift metrics, produces inaccurate results in eight out of ten cases, according to an analysis of more than 2,000 Brand Lift studies worldwide.
The research compared traditional Ad Recall results with passively measured ad exposure and found Ad Recall routinely misidentifies who has or hasn’t seen an ad, creating false positives and false negatives that distort campaign results. According to On Device, this mix of inaccurate audience groups inflates uplift figures and undermines confidence in brand-lift data.
“Memory is messy and error-prone. People recall ads they didn’t see, forget ads they did, and sometimes confuse one brand for another. When your exposed and control groups are built on these shaky foundations, your measurement is fundamentally flawed,” said Alan Bantick, Head of Research at On Device.
“Our analysis proves that Ad Recall is not fit for purpose as a proxy for exposure. If advertisers want measurement they can trust to guide budgets, passive methodologies are by far the most reliable solution.”
The analysis also found evidence of customer selection bias. A further in-depth analysis of 15 passive-measurement studies found Ad Recall for existing customers was on average 3.1 times higher than for non-customers, despite both groups having comparable exposure to the campaigns.
In practice, according to On Device, seven in ten respondents in an Ad Recall exposed group are likely to be existing customers, meaning Ad Recall often measures pre-existing brand relationships rather than genuine lift.
The findings come as Australian digital ad spend reached AUD $17.2 billion in FY 2025, up 10.6% year on year, according to IAB Australia/PwC. Video accounted for 29% of total online ad spend, increasing 21.9% to AUD $5.0 billion.
“Australian marketers are increasingly demanding accuracy over ease. Choosing recall-based methods because they’re cheaper or simpler only creates more problems down the track. Clean, passive measurement not only gives marketers confidence in their results but also clarity on what truly drives performance and long-term growth,” said Mark Griffiths, ANZ Commercial Director, On Device.
The findings are detailed in a white paper, Brand Lift’s Biggest Mistake: Why Ad Recall Falls Short, available at on-device.com. The studies analyzed covered digital campaigns across multiple sectors between 2019 and 2025.
